RECESSION AND DECLINING USA

The Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, stagflation, spiraling fuel prices, Fed’s interest rate hike, and pulling out of foreign investors - all of these add up to the current season of recession which threatens to overturn years of progress. This is consequential, especially for developing countries which are facing immense pressure due to the recession while developed countries can resist the price and job shock because of a better median salary. Fuel price hikes may leave Americans with depleting savings but they can lead to reduced GDP growth forecasts in emerging markets like India. Although India has fared better than developed countries like the US in controlling inflation, we are still far away from a safe shelter. Recession can thwart our progress and hurt the economy.

The world is heading to a global recession thanks to the raising interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Nobody really knows what direction the world economy will take. But we can only hope for the best.

Although the economy will grow a little more than 7% in 2022, that’s far cry from the original estimate of 9.6% in January 2022. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have slashed growth projections for the world’s 3rdlargest economy by PPP. The FM has reassured foreign and domestic investors that India’s position is strong and is far from a state of recession, thanks to generous stimulus packages and swift government response to market trends. The RBI is in an “inflation-control” mode right now and has shifted focus from growth to recession control for the first time in decades. A lot of what Mr. Powell says from inside the white-marbled US Federal Reserve has reverberating effects all over the globe and has the potential to plunge stock markets and alter investors' confidence in markets. Apart from just crossing our fingers and hoping for the best, we should place confidence in the government's policies and resolve conflicts around the world and at home.

Jerome Powell is the 11th most powerful man in the world but he cannot seem to do much about the ongoing crises right now. If you are at the helm of the world's biggest economy, people expect you to act responsibly and swiftly.

In August 2021, millions of visuals were launched worldwide showing the desperate Afghans trying to cling on but falling to their deaths from a US Air Force C-17 plane fleeing home after an epic and devastating diplomatic failure. Thousands died while the superpower sang its praises and gave a pat on its own back for being able to rescue its citizens from a death zone of its own making. But the fact that Joe Biden and American diplomacy were wrong about Afghanistan remains true nonetheless. The situation in Afghanistan is reminiscent of the changing world order and the shrinking US influence over world politics especially in Asia thanks to the emergence of India and China. The US is no longer the world bully that everyone fears. There are now several contenders for the top spot.

A similar situation was witnessed more recently in Ukraine where at first, the US came forward as an open supporter of Ukraine and against Russia. But as the war between the two waged on, it slowly reduced its support for Ukraine by not providing it with any real help. They completely sidelined the concept that, in the real world, what counts is Acta, nonverbal. Saying a few reassuring words does not solve anyone's problems. All this was done in the name of protecting America's interests. This was seen as an act of cowardice globally and further ruined its image. This also reduced the trust of its allied countries in the US to expect quid pro quo in times of need.

A similar trend of lack of strong decision-making and not acting on time has been in motion since Donald Trump was the head of the office. Many blame him for having acted irrationally such as his badly negotiated Doha deal and many more. At that time many renowned leaders, political figures, and critics openly vouched for Joe Biden to be elected as the new president, hoping for a change. People voted for Biden only because they did not want to vote for Trump. That is a fact and it should be accepted the way it is. Both parties have no meaningful candidates which is sad, to say the least. The US needs to shed the mindset that the world still fears it. Every country is much more self-reliant and sufficient than they were 20 years ago.

Even though Biden got elected, our present is proof that "the change" never took place. Joe Biden and his predecessor kept digging into each other's flaws and wrongdoings to justify the unfavorable conditions and environment of the world for the US, today. This is a classic example of rotten politics within a country affecting it adversely. Ironically, Abraham Lincon, a great man who belonged to the very country whose "superpower image" is being shattered today, warned us about internal politics and the rottenness of a country being the cause of its decline, in the economic, social, and military front. The event that took place on January 6, 2021, will forever be remembered as a black day for world democracy and the then-US President promoted it, no doubt about that.

A deeper dive into the history of the US tells us that, with the end of World War 2 it became a world superpower. Its strength and status reached another peak in the mid and late 1990s as the Cold war ended: it accounted for about 30% of global economic output. However, after it entered a new economic cycle from 2000 to 2001, the American share of the world economy gradually dropped. At the same time, certain situations, including the "weakening of advantages as compared to other countries" were also seen. This trend started before the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, continued during the global financial crisis, and even today. After analyzing the status quo, it can be straightforwardly deduced that the extraordinary hold the US has over the rest of the world is gradually diminishing giving rise to "America's decline as a superpower" or the "American decline".

In the past few years, the USA saw some of the most powerful protests and movements such as "Black lives matter" after the killing of George Floyd, etc. which affected their society drastically. The unnecessary involvement and intervention of the US in many international conflicts have resulted in nothing but near or absolute demolition of the countries involved. America has never seen a leader as racist and sexist as Donald John Trump.

"America's list of complaints seems endless: real wages are falling, productivity growth is down, the gap between rich and poor is widening, both schools and cities are not safe, the crime rate is increasing drastically, the economy is falling, youth workforce is not channelized properly, their companies aren't as competitive and influential on a global basis as they used to be. The nation's infrastructure is collapsing. The health system is deteriorating, and the list goes on and on. Strange as it may seem, a nation once celebrated for its irrepressible optimism now appears to be obsessed by decline." The above lines are quoted from a write-up published by the Harvard Business Review.

Their problems and flaws are increasing and the US is losing its influence and grasp on the rest of the world. Upon extrapolating the current deductions, it can be concluded that a vacuum is slowly being created for a new country to step up and claim the title of "superpower" by replacing the US.

20 years back, the US was topping governments in the Middle East and planting governments in other nations. Now, it cannot even get Saudi Arabia, one of its closest allies, to reduce oil prices. MBS did not even shake hands with Joe Biden. WORLD SUPERPOWER !!!

JAI HIND

Looks like all you need to be the wealthiest man on the planet is to get 1600 on the SAT and go to Harvard. These 2 men have had a bigger influence on the world than most world leaders. Maybe even some US Presidents. They serve more people than the populations of the US and China combined. What I truly admire is that he was one of the best to kickstart the revolution of the IT industry.